As the autumn auction season commenced with events in Hong Kong and New York, recent results have highlighted a new “normal” characterized by more measured prices and evolving trends across regions.
The art world has resumed its usual pace this season, with discussions increasingly focused on the perception that “the market is slowing down” and “we are no longer in a pandemic.” Although some optimism emerged during events like Frieze Seoul and the Armory Show, the initial auctions in Hong Kong and New York indicated a shift towards modest estimates and, at times, lower hammer prices compared to the peak periods when ultra-contemporary artists saw meteoric rises. In this buyer’s market, collectors are on the lookout for quality deals while coming to terms with the reality that past overvaluations may not yield the returns they once anticipated.
According to Artnet’s The Intelligence Report Mid-Year Review 2024, every category in the art market has seen significant declines over the past year, with values in the ultra-contemporary segment dropping by 39 percent from 2023 to 2024. Despite this substantial decrease, the category still generated a noteworthy $164.8 million in total sales for works by artists born after 1974. This figure, while impressive, is below previous highs and reflects a broader trend: total sales at the “big three” auction houses have declined by 29 percent compared to last year.
The cooling of the secondary market was evident in recent sales in both New York and Hong Kong, where once highly sought-after blue-chip names experienced notable price drops. Nevertheless, the season was not without its surprises, as certain auctions featured record prices and vigorous bidding, particularly for fresh-to-market works and auction debuts.
As collectors adjust to this shifting landscape, the current auction results signal a critical juncture for the art market, where the emphasis is now on value and authenticity rather than the previous fervor for high returns.
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